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Since 2018, new energy vehicles have maintained a relatively high-speed development. On December 10th, the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as “the Association”) released the production and sales data of passenger cars in China in November. In November, the wholesale sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 136,000, an increase of 19.1% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 69%. Among them, the plug-in increased by 87% year-on-year, and pure electric power increased by 65%. From January to November, the wholesale of new energy passenger cars was 880,000.
However, while the new energy vehicles are developing at a high speed, the lack of capacity of their upstream components is likely to cause “card neck”. Chen Gang, the sixth division of BYD and the general manager of the solar energy division, said that in terms of production capacity, the development of new energy vehicles will be limited by the current capacity of batteries and IGBT products.
Relevant data shows that China's IGBT market has been monopolized by international giants, and 90% of its shares are in the hands of overseas giants such as Infineon and Mitsubishi. Zhou Shengming, deputy director of IC Design Branch of China Semiconductor Industry Association, said that the biggest import of single products in China is chips, and enterprises have dependence on foreign products, but this dependence is not desirable, especially when products form competition.
Car companies "spend money" to develop IGBT
It is understood that IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor, insulated gate bipolar transistor) is a high-power power electronic device used mainly for inverter inverters and other inverter circuits to invert DC voltage into AC power with adjustable frequency, commonly known as power electronic devices. CPU". IGBT is the core device of energy conversion and transmission. Using IGBT for power conversion can improve power efficiency and quality. It is a key technology to solve energy shortage problems and reduce carbon emissions.
On December 10th, BYD Co., Ltd. (002594.SZ, hereinafter referred to as "BYD") released IGBT4.0 technology. In the afternoon of the same day, the reporter of China Business News went to Ningbo BYD Semiconductor Co., Ltd. to visit the four important areas of IGBT manufacturing: diffusion zone, film zone, yellow zone and etching zone. Wu Haiping, senior research and development manager of the sixth division of BYD, mentioned to the reporter that the current output capability of IGBT4.0 is 15% higher than that of the current mainstream IGBT. Under the same working conditions, the integrated loss of IGBT4.0 is lower than that of the current mainstream IGBT. About 20%.
For BYD's development in IGBT, Chen Gang said that in 2005 BYD set up an IGBT R&D team and acquired Ningbo Zhongwei Semiconductor Fab in October 2008. “At present, BYD is the only car company in China with a complete industrial chain: IGBT chip design and manufacturing, module design and manufacturing, high-power device test application platform, power supply and electronic control.”
In addition, Chen Gang introduced that BYD has invested heavily in the layout of SiC (silicon carbide), a third-generation semiconductor material with better performance. It is expected to introduce an electric vehicle equipped with SiC electronic control in 2019. It is estimated that by 2023, BYD's electric vehicles will be fully equipped with SiC electronic control.
It is understood that in the domestic market, only CRRC Times Electric, BYD and other companies master the R & D and production of IGBT. In the past two years, SAIC, BAIC and other vehicle companies have begun to cooperate with other companies to master relevant technologies.
International giant monopoly is serious
As one of the mainstream new power electronic devices, IGBT is widely used in rail transit, smart grid, aerospace, electric vehicles, new energy equipment, and industrial fields (AC/DC conversion and inverter control for high-voltage and high-current applications). The core technology in the above applications.
However, the data shows that China's IGBT market has been monopolized by international giants, and 90% of its shares are in the hands of overseas giants such as Infineon and Mitsubishi. Zhou Shengming said that the biggest import of domestic single products is chips, which are dependent on foreign products, but this dependence is not desirable, especially when the products form competition.
According to CITIC's research, in 2017, China's domestic IGBT market was about 12.1 billion yuan, accounting for about 50% of global demand. However, China's IGBT started late, the domestic market share was mainly monopolized by international giants, the localization rate was only 11%, the import dependence was high, and the domestic substitution space was huge.
There are few companies developing IGBTs in China, or it is related to the difficulty of IGBT R&D and production. BYD related technicians said that IGBT chips only have human nail size, but they have to etch hundreds of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of micro-structure circuits on them, which can only be viewed under a microscope.
From the design of the IGBT chip, there are more than a dozen parameters involved, and many parameters are contradictory and need to be considered according to the application. In the wafer manufacturing process, the latest 1200V is adopted. FS technology IGBTs need to be thinned to a thickness of 120um (about two hair wire diameters), and then processed in more than 10 processes. “The cleanliness of the wafer manufacturing plant is very high and requires a level of purification. A fraction of a micron of dust falling on the wafer will cause an IGBT chip to fail,” the technician said.
In addition, IGBT module design is also very difficult, considering material matching, heat dissipation, structure, power density, appearance, weight and many other indicators.
Chen Gang said that the threshold for semiconductor R&D is high, not just by funds, but also by downstream. "If the upstream and downstream can not carry out good communication and integration, the products that may be costly to produce are not suitable for the application end, resulting in the possibility of disconnection from the downstream." Yang Qinyao, product director of the sixth division of BYD, also told reporters that the application is pulling, Talent cultivation and product standardization are three elements in IGBT production.
Mechanical IGBT market
Since 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have exploded. From 2018 to 2020, China's new energy vehicle production will grow at a compound annual growth rate of more than 40%. In 2018, China's new energy vehicle production is expected to reach 1 million units.
The rapid development of new energy vehicles may drive the market growth of IGBTs. Chen Gang said that IGBTs and batteries are the two core technologies that restrict the development of electric vehicles today, and chips are the core industry of modern manufacturing. According to reports, IGBT as a core component of new energy vehicles, accounting for about 5% of the total cost of the vehicle.
According to Jibang Consulting, during the period from 2018 to 2025, the scale of the IGBT market driven by China's new energy vehicles and related industries totaled more than 120 billion yuan. Among them, in 2025, the market size of IGBTs used by new energy vehicles in China will reach 21 billion yuan; from 2018 to 2025, the cumulative new market for IGBTs used in new energy vehicles in China will exceed 90 billion yuan.
At the same time, however, the growth rate of new energy vehicles is significantly higher than that of vehicle-grade IGBTs, resulting in increasingly tight supply of IGBTs. From the current situation, according to Fuchang Electronics (Future Electronics LTD, one of the world's three major electronic component distributors. The IGBT lead time has been significantly extended for the IGBT product lead time in the first half of 2018, and will continue to increase in the future.
Statistics show that, in general, the lead time of IGBT is about 8~12 weeks, but the delivery period of most manufacturers in the fourth quarter of 2017 has been extended to 18~20 weeks. In the first half of 2018, the average delivery cycle is extended to 20~26 weeks. The delivery cycle of IGBT modules used in automobiles can take up to 52 weeks, Infineon and ON. The lead times of major IGBT product suppliers such as Semi and IXYS are prolonged.
Guojin Securities analyzed that it is estimated that in 2022, the annual production and sales volume of global new energy vehicles will reach 6 million, and the average annual compound growth rate will reach 30% from 2018 to 2022. However, the average annual compound growth rate of the automotive-grade IGBT market was only 15.7%.
